What GuardianWave Does
GuardianWave provides intelligence-led judgement in complex risk and threat environments, supporting leaders where decisions carry material, asymmetric consequence.
The work exists to inform judgement under pressure, before escalation hardens positions, constrains choice, or creates irreversible exposure.
Executive Summary & Assessment
Each assessment begins with a clear bottom-line judgement: what the situation is, how severe it is, and what it means for decision-makers.
This section includes:
- Bottom-line assessment and severity rating
- Key implications and decision relevance
- Scope, boundaries, and current state
- Overall risk posture and confidence level
Threat & Actor Analysis
GuardianWave integrates open and closed-source intelligence to identify who is involved, what capability and intent they possess, and how structural pressures shape their behaviour.
This section includes:
Actor identity, capability, intent, and history
Structural pressures and motivations
Open-source intelligence integration
Closed-source intelligence where relevant
Signals & Exposure
Risk and threat become visible through signals before they appear in formal reporting. GuardianWave identifies early warnings, escalation indicators, and false signals, then maps where exposure concentrates.
This section includes:
Early warning signals and patterns
Escalation indicators and thresholds
False signals and noise filtering
Primary and secondary exposure analysis
Who bears the risk and how
Escalation Paths & Judgement
GuardianWave maps plausible escalation pathways and provides disciplined judgement on how situations may evolve, not just how they appear at a single moment.
This section includes:
Plausible escalation pathways
Assessment judgement and risk posture
Confidence level in assessment
What increases vs. reduces risk
Options, Monitoring & Caveats
Each assessment provides multiple response options, monitoring triggers to track evolution, and explicit assumptions and caveats to bound judgement.
Multiple considered response options
Monitoring triggers and indicators
Key assumptions underlying the assessment
Caveats and limitations
Supporting appendices provide additional context, source material, and detailed analysis where relevant to the decision at hand.
Start a Conversation
If you are facing consequential uncertainty and need clearer judgement on how risk or threat is forming, GuardianWave can help.
GuardianWave is selective by necessity.
If the decision does not materially matter, GuardianWave is not the right fit.